Possible scenario
Court Blocks Start
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the district court treats the announced start date as inconsistent with its prior order and keeps the East Potomac work halt in place. Given the timeline of findings on rushed tree cutting and public-land impacts, the judge is likely to demand a fuller administrative record before allowing construction to resume.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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