Possible scenario
Administration Defies Court
20% Chance
A more confrontational path is plausible if the White House argues the judge’s order does not bar planning, mobilization, or site access. This would escalate the dispute from a local land-use fight into a separation-of-powers confrontation, though still with limited direct market impact.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.