Possible scenario
Russia Escalates Attrition
27% Chance
The Kremlin responds to the publicized loss imbalance by intensifying glide-bomb, missile, and drone attacks rather than accepting a slower defensive posture. This keeps the war materially escalated but still below a NATO-Russia confrontation, making the market impact noticeable but not crisis-level.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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