Possible scenario
Negotiation Pressure Rises
20% Chance
Russia's high losses and Ukraine's ability to blunt encirclement plans increase pressure on outside powers to test a ceasefire channel. Neither side is likely to accept a full settlement quickly, but limited talks become more plausible if Moscow wants to freeze lines before further manpower losses.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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