Possible scenario
Probe Broadens Further
30% Chance
Investigators use Tezmen's arrest to pursue other brokerage accounts, fund managers, and suspected coordinated trading groups. This remains plausible given the earlier detention of 15 people, jailing of 20, liquidation of 130 funds, and the scale of the ₺1.6 trillion selloff.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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