Possible scenario
Probe Stays Contained
40% Chance
Kalshi’s surveillance review finds a small cluster of suspicious accounts but no evidence that the broader market was compromised. The company freezes or reverses affected trades, reports findings to regulators, and keeps personnel-related contracts open under tighter monitoring.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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