Possible scenario
Fragmented Policy Response
25% Chance
U.S. officials and rival AI labs treat onPanda as another sign that China's open-source AI stack is becoming harder to contain. The response is more likely to be reviews, procurement guidance and standards work than immediate sweeping sanctions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Business Services +0.3%
Tickers
- PLTR+0.7%
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.