Possible scenario
Russia Uses Leverage
20% Chance
After the first tanker sails, the Kremlin signals that future diesel releases depend on broader sanctions relief, payment access, or public U.S. assurances. This keeps the deal alive but raises doubts about whether Russia will deliver the full 4.8 million tons on schedule.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.