Possible scenario
Targeted Tax Retrenchment
35% Chance
The most likely policy response is a limited recalibration rather than a full reversal. HM Treasury tries to stop further billionaire departures while preserving Labour's claim that it closed the non-dom loophole.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Business Services +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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