Possible scenario
No Major Shift
20% Chance
Ministers conclude that reversing course would be politically costly and fiscally uncertain. The government argues that departures were front-loaded and that the tax base will stabilise once the new regime is fully understood.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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