Possible scenario
Exodus Extends
30% Chance
The headline accelerates a self-reinforcing narrative that Britain is no longer competitive for globally mobile wealth. More family offices prepare relocations, and advisers market Monaco, Switzerland, the UAE and Italy as safer tax bases.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.2%
- Business Services -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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