Possible scenario
Waiver Not Renewed
25% Chance
The US allows the temporary Najaf exemption to expire rather than extending it, reasserting pressure on Iranian airlines after the short religious-travel window. Iraq is likely to comply to avoid secondary sanctions on airports, aviation authorities, and banks handling ticketing or fuel payments.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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