Possible scenario
Waiver Holds Steady
45% Chance
Washington and Baghdad keep the Najaf carveout intact through the stated Oct. 28 expiry, treating the flights as a controlled religious and humanitarian exception rather than a sanctions rollback. Iraq continues screening manifests and routing permissions to avoid triggering penalties on airports, banks, or ground handlers.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.