Possible scenario
Extension Negotiated
20% Chance
Iraq uses the current arrangement as a template for a longer exemption, arguing that Najaf flights are tied to religious travel and domestic stability rather than sanctions evasion. The US accepts additional compliance conditions in exchange for preserving Iraqi cooperation on enforcement.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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