Possible scenario
Trump doubles down
25% Chance
Trump responds to the approval slump by leaning further into tariffs, immigration enforcement, and attacks on Republican critics. This keeps his loyal base engaged but raises concerns that policy volatility will intensify into the election.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
- Industrials -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.