Possible scenario
GOP distances itself
35% Chance
Republican candidates and congressional leaders increasingly treat Trump's 32% approval as a liability. The party does not formally break with him, but campaign messaging shifts toward local inflation, border security, and checks on executive power.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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