Possible scenario
Economic policy pivot
22% Chance
The administration and Republican strategists conclude that economic dissatisfaction is now the central political threat. They move toward targeted tariff exemptions, cost-of-living messaging, and negotiations with trade partners to stabilize consumer sentiment.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.1%
- Technology +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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