Possible scenario
Fed Repricing Returns
18% Chance
The strong PMI reading makes investors less confident that the Federal Reserve can ease policy soon, especially if growth is improving while tariffs still pressure costs. The equity impact is mixed: cyclicals gain from demand, while rate-sensitive growth stocks face a valuation headwind.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Fed policy rate Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Utilities -0.4%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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