Possible scenario
US Pressures Kyiv
38% Chance
Trump’s public frustration with Zelensky hardens into a White House effort to force Ukraine toward talks on terms closer to Moscow’s position. The administration slows some diplomatic and military support while framing Zelensky, not Putin, as the main obstacle to a deal.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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