Possible scenario
Deal Talks Advance
28% Chance
Trump uses his preference for dealing with Putin to accelerate a US-Russia outline for a cease-fire, while leaving Ukraine to negotiate modifications. Kyiv resists publicly but engages to avoid losing US backing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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