Possible scenario
Alliance Fracture Deepens
22% Chance
The personal rift becomes a substantive policy break, with Washington curtailing intelligence, weapons approvals, or diplomatic coordination. This is the highest-risk path because it could embolden Russian escalation and force Europe to compensate quickly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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