Possible scenario
Sanctions Dispute Returns
15% Chance
A less likely but realistic outcome is that the waiver becomes contested if US officials believe sanctioned Iranian entities are benefiting from Iraqi flight activity. This could bring renewed flight suspensions, diplomatic pressure on Baghdad, or targeted designations against specific carriers or service providers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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