Possible scenario
Conditional Compliance Regime
30% Chance
Washington is likely to use the waiver as leverage, requiring Iraq to monitor passenger manifests, sanctioned entities, and payment channels. This keeps flights running but creates an ongoing compliance burden for Iraqi aviation authorities and Iran-linked carriers.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.