Possible scenario
Attribution Hardens
40% Chance
Finnish authorities conclude the home intrusions were part of a Russian hybrid-intimidation campaign against elected officials. Helsinki responds with expulsions, criminal indictments, and tighter parliamentary security, but stops short of measures that would trigger a broader NATO crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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