Possible scenario
Sustained Fuel Crunch
40% Chance
Russia struggles to restart damaged refining units quickly, forcing Moscow to prioritize domestic fuel supply over exports. Diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel shortages deepen in southern and central Russia, while global product cracks widen.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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