Possible scenario
Rapid Repair Containment
25% Chance
Emergency repairs, spare-part cannibalization, and rerouting of crude allow Russia to bring a meaningful share of damaged refining capacity back online. Markets partially reverse the initial energy-risk premium as the disruption appears severe but not structurally permanent.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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