Possible scenario
Military Escalation Cycle
20% Chance
Moscow treats the refinery losses as a strategic escalation and retaliates with larger missile and drone barrages against Ukrainian power, ports, and fuel logistics. Ukraine continues long-range strikes, raising the probability of broader energy infrastructure disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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