Possible scenario
Courts Block DHS
42% Chance
Universities, employers, and affected graduates quickly sue DHS, arguing that a $100,000 OPT work-permit fee is arbitrary, exceeds statutory authority, and conflicts with the June 2026 H-1B fee ruling. Given the recent judicial rejection of the parallel H-1B fee, courts are likely to slow or block the OPT threat before full implementation.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Business Services +0.3%
- Healthcare +0.2%
Tickers
- MSFT+0.8%
- AMZN+0.7%
- CTSH+0.6%
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.