Possible scenario
Talarico Counterwave Holds
28% Chance
Talarico's campaign converts its earlier fundraising and media dominance into a durable volunteer and turnout operation. Paxton's ad buy prevents a Democratic runaway but does not fully repair voter concerns over his legal history, impeachment, and polarizing profile.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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