Possible scenario
Paxton Ad Blitz Works
46% Chance
The new $20 million ad buy closes the paid-media gap that James Talarico created in August and reinforces Ken Paxton's existing polling lead. Republican outside groups treat Texas as winnable but not safe, keeping enough money in the race to prevent a Democratic breakthrough.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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