Possible scenario
Demand Destruction Builds
20% Chance
The 80% price jump changes behavior, especially among households with discretionary ability to conserve or switch heating systems. Lower fuel consumption reduces volumes for oil dealers but supports companies tied to electrification and efficiency upgrades.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Utilities +0.4%
- Finance -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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