Possible scenario
Negotiated De-escalation
25% Chance
The rising household bill gives Washington and European governments stronger incentives to pursue a limited de-escalation rather than an open-ended campaign. Tehran also has reason to trade partial shipping access or inspections relief for sanctions or humanitarian concessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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