Possible scenario
Hormuz Premium Persists
30% Chance
Iran keeps enough pressure on the Strait of Hormuz to sustain the oil-risk premium without forcing a full global supply stop. The household-cost narrative reinforces market concern that higher fuel prices will squeeze consumption and keep inflation expectations elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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