Possible scenario
Hybrid Attacks Contained
25% Chance
Russian-linked actors increase cyberattacks, disinformation, and GPS jamming before or during the Latvian vote. NATO and EU bodies respond with monitoring and attribution, but the interference falls short of invalidating the election.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Technology +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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