Possible scenario
Resilient Labor Persists
45% Chance
The drop in continuing claims is treated as evidence that layoffs remain limited and that the labor market is stabilizing after earlier softness. This is the base case because both continuing and initial claims have recently moved lower despite prior concerns about weak hiring.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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