Possible scenario
Fed Patience Returns
15% Chance
A stronger jobless-claims backdrop leads investors to reassess the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve easing. The labor data are not strong enough to imply a major policy shock, but they can push short-end and long-end rates modestly higher.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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