Possible scenario
Riots Escalate Further
29% Chance
A second plausible path is that the Paris riots become a national student protest wave, especially after the earlier severe injury from a police grenade. University closures, transport disruptions, and weekend marches keep political risk elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Finance -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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