Possible scenario
Government Contains Unrest
38% Chance
The most likely path is that the Élysée and Matignon move quickly to reduce the protest temperature after repeated police injuries and the earlier grenade injury. Limited budget flexibility, an inquiry into policing, and talks with student unions help keep demonstrations from becoming a broader national crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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