Possible scenario
Budget Standoff Deepens
20% Chance
The unrest feeds into the fight over the 2027 budget cuts, making parliamentary arithmetic harder for the government. Opposition parties use the student protests to challenge the savings plan, raising the chance of delays, watered-down measures, or a censure attempt.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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