Possible scenario
Supply Risk Dominates
35% Chance
The most likely path is that traders keep a geopolitical and supply-risk premium in crude after Brent closes at $102.31. OPEC+ cuts, Houthi threats near the Red Sea, and firm Asian buying make it difficult for prices to retreat quickly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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