Possible scenario
Demand-Led Rally
23% Chance
Brent may stay above $100 because demand is stronger than expected rather than because supply is suddenly disrupted. Rising Chinese imports, refinery runs, and industrial activity would make the rally look less like a temporary squeeze and more like a tighter global balance.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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