Possible scenario
Establishment Consolidates Alternative
25% Chance
National and state Democratic power brokers use the controversy to argue that El-Sayed is a weak general-election nominee. Endorsements, union support, and major donors begin shifting toward a more conventional Democrat in the open Senate primary.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.