Possible scenario
Attribution And Retaliation
25% Chance
Russia may attribute the attacks to Ukraine-linked or Western-backed infrastructure and respond through diplomatic accusations, arrests, or retaliatory cyber operations. This would keep the incident in the Russia-Ukraine cyber-conflict channel without necessarily creating a global market shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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