Possible scenario
Unrest Flares Again
20% Chance
A new trigger, such as a police injury, viral arrest video, or banned march, reignites clashes in Marseille and possibly Paris suburbs. This becomes a material but still localized European risk event rather than a systemic global crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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