Possible scenario
Security Containment Holds
45% Chance
Curfews, protest bans, and visible policing keep the unrest from spreading beyond the main flashpoints. Macron's government presents the security response as temporary, while rejecting Trump's framing that migration is the core cause.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.