Possible scenario
Political Hardening Deepens
25% Chance
Even with protests subsiding, French politics shifts toward tougher policing, border checks, and public-order legislation. Trump's renewed call to close borders strengthens right-wing messaging in Europe, though French officials continue to deny a simple migrant-blame narrative.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Finance -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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