Possible scenario
Diplomatic Friction Emerges
18% Chance
The September expansion to 28 third countries creates coordination problems as receiving governments demand more documentation, funding, or flight notice. The Louisiana hub keeps operating, but some routes become politically sensitive and less reliable.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
- GEO-0.4%
- CXW-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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