Possible scenario
Contained Diplomatic Rupture
45% Chance
Turkey responds forcefully through diplomatic channels but avoids steps that would trigger a wider military or economic confrontation. Israel maintains that the target was a Hamas Nukhba operative and frames the strike as part of its post-October 7 campaign.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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