Possible scenario
Strait Remains Contested
30% Chance
The Houthis reject the loss of Bab al-Mandab and continue probing attacks from nearby inland positions and launch sites. The strait is not fully closed, but shipowners, insurers, and naval commanders treat the route as unstable.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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