Possible scenario
Government Control Holds
45% Chance
The internationally recognized Yemeni Armed Forces consolidate control around Dhubab, Mocha, and the Bab al-Mandab approaches. Houthi units remain capable of harassment inland, but the strait stays navigable under Yemeni and coalition overwatch.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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